Alberta separatists are optimistic about winning a referendum that recent surveys suggest they may actually lose by a significant margin, according to exclusive new polling data. This discrepancy in expectations could have significant implications for the future, indicating that the issue may not be resolved with a single vote, as suggested by the pollster and a political scientist.
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto unveiled the findings of the latest poll conducted in early September during an interview on CBC’s “West of Centre.” On October 19, Albertans will be presented with a question offering two options: to remain in Canada (Option 1) or to initiate the legal process for a binding referendum on Alberta separation (Option 2). This question will accompany nine others focusing on constitutional and immigration matters.
The poll results revealed that 64% of respondents favored staying a province within Canada, while 24% supported commencing the separation process. Additionally, Option 2 supporters displayed high expectations, anticipating a winning vote of 57%.
Attributing this optimism to the echo chambers people inhabit and their fervent support for the separatist cause, Coletto emphasized the inflated expectations among supporters of Option 2. Meanwhile, political science professor Lisa Young highlighted the potential repercussions of such exaggerated expectations, signaling concerns about the aftermath of the referendum.
Premier Danielle Smith views the upcoming referendum as a pivotal moment to gauge Albertans’ sentiments, suggesting a possible resolution post-vote. However, both Young and Coletto foresee a continuation of the issue regardless of the outcome, with many Option 2 voters anticipating the separatist movement to persist and grow.
The typical Option 2 voter, as depicted by the poll, tends to be a conservative partisan, slightly older than the provincial average, and more likely to reside in smaller cities or suburban areas around Calgary and Edmonton. Their grievances, rather than demographic characteristics, set them apart, with a strong emphasis on Alberta’s interests, perceived neglect from Ottawa, and a lack of respect from the rest of Canada.
Regarding the motivations behind supporting Option 2, only 26% cited independence as their primary reason, with others seeking leverage, sending a message, or standing on principle. This aligns with recent messaging from the separatist camp, emphasizing that voting for Option 2 is more about signaling a desire for a better relationship with Ottawa rather than outright independence.
The poll conducted by Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online in early September, with results weighted by region, age, and gender. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.1 percentage points.