Environment and Climate Change Canada has projected that 2026 is likely to rank among the top four hottest years on record. A recent analysis of global temperatures on ClimateData.ca indicates that scientists are highly confident that 2026 will be one of the hottest years ever documented. The primary driver of the Earth’s warming trend is the increase in carbon emissions, primarily stemming from the combustion of coal, oil, and gas. Nonetheless, beyond human activity, other factors contribute to the record-breaking temperatures.
The analysis notes that the exceptional global temperatures witnessed in recent years can be partly attributed to the significant El Niño event in 2023-2024, exacerbated by ongoing human-induced global warming. Projections suggest that this year’s global average temperature will fall within the range of 1.35°C to 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. There is a 12% probability of surpassing the critical threshold of 1.5°C, a target that Canada and other signatories of the Paris Agreement have committed to avoiding.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while striving to constrain the temperature rise to 1.5°C, with the ultimate objective of achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping global warming below 1.5°C significantly reduces the risks posed by extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and heavy rainfall and flooding.
While exceeding 1.5°C in a particular year does not equate to failing the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal, it does indicate a concerning trend. The upcoming year is anticipated to mark the 13th consecutive year with global temperatures exceeding 1°C above pre-industrial levels. Global temperature changes are typically measured against the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900), the earliest period with reliable temperature observations over land and sea.
Beyond Environment and Climate Change Canada’s forecast, the non-profit Berkeley Earth also anticipates 2026 to follow the trend of recent years, projecting it to be the fourth-warmest year since 1850. The preceding year, 2025, was the third-warmest year on record, ranking behind only 2024 and 2023 in terms of temperature anomalies.