The El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen further until 2027 and potentially become the most powerful ever, heightening the risk of extreme weather events in the coming year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated at a news briefing in Geneva that if the current trend continues, it could surpass any previous records observed in the past four decades.
The UN weather agency indicated a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of confidence in the forecast is unprecedented, as noted by the WMO.
A strong El Niño event can lead to significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially triggering extreme weather phenomena like typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the remarkable intensification of El Niño, stressing that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts up to 12 months, impacting precipitation and drought cycles across Latin America. The ongoing El Niño episode has already affected agricultural production in tropical regions, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO anticipates the peak of El Niño towards the end of this year, with lingering effects expected to extend into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures during the following year. Saulo highlighted the organization’s enhanced preparedness and early warning initiatives in response to the escalating El Niño conditions.
“We are working closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide essential climate information and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” Saulo affirmed.
[WATCH: What a ‘super’ El Niño means for you] – Some climate models are forecasting a strong El Niño event for 2026, with potential implications for various regions. The WMO is closely monitoring the situation to provide timely updates and guidance.
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