In the previous year’s national election, discussions in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to safeguarding Canada against potential threats from the U.S., fueled by Donald Trump’s tariff warnings and remarks about Canada becoming the 51st American state. The Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, capitalized on this sentiment during the election, achieving its best outcome in Quebec in decades and overshadowing the Bloc Québécois.
Ahead of the current provincial election, the focus has returned to the U.S. president’s influence, as newly imposed tariffs have become a central issue. All party leaders are under pressure to demonstrate their ability to shield Quebec from the economic impacts of these tariffs. Economic stability has emerged as a critical concern for voters, overshadowing previous debates on Quebec identity, secularism, and language.
Despite initial priorities centered around healthcare, housing, and cost of living, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces a challenging re-election campaign due to an increasingly dissatisfied electorate and its two-term rule. The economic crisis triggered by the tariffs has redirected attention towards the party’s ability to navigate uncertain economic times successfully.
Quebec, heavily reliant on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, is projected to be significantly affected by the tariffs, according to a report by Oxford Economics. The Parti Québécois (PQ) leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has pledged not to pursue a referendum until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing a focus on Quebec’s future in the upcoming election.
The CAQ’s leader, Christine Fréchette, benefits from being in power during these turbulent times and has unveiled various financial aid programs aimed at supporting industries most impacted by the tariffs. Her opponents, however, challenge her ability to handle the crisis effectively, emphasizing the need for stronger federal relationships and alternative solutions.
As the election unfolds, parties are pitching various approaches to address the economic challenges posed by the tariffs. Québec Solidaire proposes a dedicated annual fund to assist affected workers and businesses, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives advocate for significant spending cuts and tax relief. The ability to reassure voters and navigate the economic uncertainties caused by the trade war will likely be a decisive factor in the election outcome.