In examining the trajectory of Pierre Poilievre’s political journey, comparing two polls conducted approximately three-and-a-half years apart sheds light on his evolving public perception.
In September 2022, shortly after Poilievre ascended to the leadership of the Conservative Party, an Abacus Data poll indicated that 35% of Canadians were inclined to support Poilievre’s party, giving the Conservatives a five-point lead over the Liberals. While Poilievre wasn’t overwhelmingly embraced by Canadians — 34% held a negative opinion of him, and 29% viewed him positively — he was perceived more favorably than his Liberal counterpart at the time.
By the fall of 2022, disapproval of the Liberal government had surged to 49%, with only 37% expressing approval. Similarly, 48% of Canadians held a negative opinion of then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, while just 33% viewed him positively.
Fast forward to late January 2026, and a fresh Abacus poll reveals a shift in sentiments. Support for the Conservative Party has increased by four percentage points since September 2022. Additionally, 38% of Canadians now hold a positive view of Poilievre. However, the proportion of Canadians with a negative perception of the Conservative leader has also risen, with 44% expressing unfavorable views. Concurrently, the public’s opinion of the government has reversed, with 54% now approving of its performance compared to 31% who disapprove. Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys a 53% positive rating and a 30% negative rating.
Although 39% of Canadians still lean towards voting Conservative, if an election had taken place in late January, 43% would have favored the Liberals.
When Poilievre was chosen as Conservative leader in September 2022, the circumstances seemed opportune for him. However, the political landscape shifted over the following years, presenting new challenges and considerations.
In his recent address at the Conservative convention in Calgary, Poilievre maintained a consistent stance, emphasizing “hope” and reiterating his positions on various issues such as affordability, housing, and government intervention. While some aspects of his speech showcased a slightly different tone, the core message remained in line with his past rhetoric.
Looking ahead, Poilievre’s ability to retain support within the Conservative Party and appeal to disillusioned Canadians dissatisfied with the current government will be critical in his quest for leadership. The evolving political dynamics and public perceptions present both opportunities and obstacles for Poilievre and the Conservative Party moving forward.