At Confederation Park in Calgary, Stephen Carter outlines his hopes for Alberta’s upcoming referendum on separation: a decisive 80/20 split in favor of remaining part of Canada. Carter emphasizes the importance of avoiding a close outcome to prevent prolonged uncertainty.
Distributing “Stay in Canada” lawn signs at the park, Carter insists that passersby take multiple campaign materials to spark conversations. Despite his extensive experience as a political strategist in Alberta, working with various politicians, Carter expresses concerns about the current campaign.
Polling consistently indicates a strong majority of Albertans supporting staying in Canada, with a minority favoring separation. Carter worries that complacency among federalist supporters could lead to a low voter turnout, while separatists are actively mobilized and well-funded.
Social psychologist John Ellard, sharing Carter’s apprehension, draws parallels to past events like Brexit where polls failed to predict the outcome due to uneven voter participation. Carter laments the lack of historical data to guide his campaign strategy effectively.
In a different setting, Gerry Bennet, a separatist in Red Deer, remains resolute in his stance despite being in the minority. Separatist groups have raised significantly more funds than federalist organizations, reflecting their high level of engagement and commitment.
Bennet encourages undecided Albertans to vote for initiating the referendum process as a means of sending a message to the federal government. However, Carter warns against the potential economic repercussions of separation, citing past examples like Quebec’s referendum in 1995.
Keith Wilson, leader of the separatist group Let Alberta Decide, downplays concerns about economic impact, highlighting Alberta’s energy resources as a bargaining chip. Wilson remains optimistic about the upcoming vote, emphasizing the critical importance of the final stretch of the campaign.
As the referendum date approaches, Carter envisions an 80/20 split in favor of staying in Canada, acknowledging the historical presence of separatist sentiments in Alberta. He underscores the need for the majority’s voice to prevail over the desires of a vocal minority.