After facing challenges in his political career for several months, Doug Ford took a more assertive stance this week, engaging in a verbal clash with Donald Trump. Analysts and experts suggest that the confrontation with the unpredictable U.S. president aligns with the premier’s strengths and has led to an increase in his approval ratings just before three crucial provincial byelections.
The exchange of insults between Ford and Trump ensued following the breakdown of trade negotiations between American and Canadian representatives. Trump, on Monday, unfavorably compared the premier to his deceased brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, criticizing him as less charismatic, intelligent, and impressive, and dubbing him a “flunky” of Prime Minister Mark Carney. In response, Ford rebuked Trump as the “king of bankruptcies” and a “bully.”
Ford expressed his resilience to Trump’s insults by stating, “I’ve been in this game a lot longer than he has, I got skin on me like an alligator, and you think an insult from him hurts me?”
The premier’s clashes with Trump have historically been advantageous for him politically. It notably contributed to his landslide victory in a snap election in early 2025. Following the recent altercation with the president, Ford’s personal approval ratings surged by 12 points, propelling his Progressive Conservatives into the lead according to a Liaison Strategies opinion survey conducted on the same day.
This week, voters in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe, and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek will participate in the selection of new MPPs. York-Simcoe, situated north of Toronto, has been a stronghold for the Progressive Conservatives since its establishment in 2007. On the other hand, the contests in Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek are anticipated to be closely contested, with experts speculating that Ford’s conflict with Trump could boost support for the PCs.
Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy remarked, “I think it will help immeasurably. (Voters) are going to look at that ballot and the person who’s most associated with the anti-Trump sentiment right now is Doug Ford. So this could help.”
Milloy, currently serving as the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College, emphasized that voter turnout in byelections tends to be low, but Ford has effectively tapped into public dissatisfaction with Trump, providing an avenue for people to express their frustration through voting.
Additionally, NDP strategist Erin Morrison highlighted the efforts of the Official Opposition in Scarborough and Hamilton to secure victory in the byelections. The PCs have faced a series of controversies in recent months, necessitating a shift in focus – a need that the confrontation with Trump has seemingly fulfilled.
Conservative strategist Sam Duncan affirmed that Ford’s confrontation with Trump aligns with the premier’s strengths, resonating emotionally with Ontarians. While Duncan believes that the Scarborough byelection may not be influenced by the Trump feud, he anticipates a potential impact in Hamilton, where the Tories previously defeated the New Democrats in 2022.
McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe contended that the verbal sparring with Trump could enhance the perception of Ford’s government overall, potentially bolstering the PCs’ vote share in the byelections. However, he cautioned against overestimating the extent of the confrontation’s impact.
In conclusion, the recent clash between Doug Ford and Donald Trump is expected to have repercussions on the upcoming byelections, with Ford leveraging the anti-Trump sentiment to potentially sway voter support in his favor.